nesdec forecast Oct2024

We received our New England School Development Council (NESDEC) student enrollment forecast today. The School Board will review it at their regular meeting on November 12, 2024. We are sharing it publicly before then due to public interest. Their analysis indicates by the year 2034-2035 our student population will decrease by 10 students spread across 13 grades (p. 4).

NESDEC shared the following in their Summary (p. 1).

Enrollment projections are more reliable in Years #1-3 in the future. Projections four to ten years out may serve as a guide to future enrollments and are useful for planning purposes. (...)

Births decreased by 4 from a previous ten-year average of 61 to a projected average of 57. In most districts, Grades 1-8 are very stable in enrollments. However, there have been increases in 6 of the 8 most recent years, leading to a net increase averaging 14 students per year.

Over the next three years, Grades 1-4 enrollments are projected to increase by 7 students, Grades 5-8 enrollments are projected to increase by 24 students, and Grades 9-12 enrollments are projected to decrease by 32 students, as students move through the grades.

New England School Development Council. (10/29/2024). Cape Elizabeth School Department School Year 2024-25 Enrollment Projection Report.